Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240316 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    137.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  27.7  29.9  27.6  33.2  30.5  32.2  30.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  69.0  47.0   9.0  40.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  92.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0   9.0 -16.0 -33.0   8.0  10.0  15.0  36.0  N  U  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  56.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.6%       33.5%       46.1%
 25kt / 24h       53.2%       61.4%       57.3%
 30kt / 24h       53.2%       58.4%       55.8%
 35kt / 24h       53.2%       58.4%       55.8%
 40kt / 24h       20.2%       54.6%       37.4%
 45kt / 36h       23.1%       36.6%       29.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.4%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%       13.9%       10.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        5.1%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.7%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.32

 SH192024 240316 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    137.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  27.7  29.9  27.6  33.2  30.5  32.2  30.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  56.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%