Rapid Intensification Guidance SH192024 240317 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.00 137.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 99.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 29.8 34.9 35.3 31.4 30.8 31.3 30.1 N N U U U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 9.0 77.0 40.0 37.4 34.8 32.2 29.5 N U N N U U U U Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 77.0 67.9 72.3 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -29.0 -6.0 17.0 26.0 6.0 -16.0 -6.0 24.0 VU U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 63.0 62.0 57.0 55.0 63.0 67.0 N N N N U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 4.0 0.0 9.0 -2.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 65.9% 31.8% 48.8% 25kt / 24h 55.8% 45.6% 50.7% 30kt / 24h 55.8% 43.6% 49.7% 35kt / 24h 55.8% 43.6% 49.7% 40kt / 24h 19.9% 39.9% 29.9% 45kt / 36h 32.1% 21.9% 27.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 10.1% 5.0% 55kt / 48h 2.4% 5.1% 3.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.44 SH192024 240317 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.00 137.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 29.8 34.9 35.3 31.4 30.8 31.3 30.1 N N F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 63.0 62.0 57.0 55.0 63.0 67.0 N N N N F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 4.0 0.0 9.0 -2.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4%