Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240317 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    137.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  38.4  39.2  37.9  36.8  40.3  32.7  28.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  42.0  12.0  77.0  40.0  13.0   7.8   2.6  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0  10.0   7.0  35.0 -39.0   1.0  17.0  34.0  U  U  U  N VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.9%       12.0%       27.4%
 25kt / 24h       21.3%       17.1%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h       21.3%       12.3%       16.8%
 35kt / 24h       21.3%       12.3%       16.8%
 40kt / 24h        6.9%       10.8%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h       22.8%        7.1%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.50

 SH192024 240317 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    137.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  38.4  39.2  37.9  36.8  40.3  32.7  28.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%