Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240317 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  36.8  36.1  34.7  33.6  33.2  25.9  22.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  77.0  40.0  38.6  35.8  32.9  30.1  27.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.3  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  29.0  17.0   1.0   2.0  24.0  30.0  13.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  72.0  73.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   8.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.2%        6.4%       11.3%
 25kt / 24h       11.8%       13.3%       12.5%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%        9.1%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h       11.8%        9.1%       10.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        7.9%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.5%        3.9%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 SH192024 240317 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  36.8  36.1  34.7  33.6  33.2  25.9  22.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  72.0  73.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   8.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%