Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240318 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    137.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.2  39.3  36.6  38.1  37.4  30.7  30.7  30.7 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  76.0  39.0  39.0  23.4   7.8   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   7.0  -3.0 -10.0  33.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.32

 SH192024 240318 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    137.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.2  39.3  36.6  38.1  37.4  30.7  30.7  30.7 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.6%        3.3%