Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240318 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  38.4  37.3  34.6  26.6  31.6  24.8  23.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  39.0  17.0  17.5  18.6  19.7  20.8  21.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  28.0  19.0  20.0   7.0  43.0   0.0  42.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  78.0  78.0  82.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.92

 SH192024 240318 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  38.4  37.3  34.6  26.6  31.6  24.8  23.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  78.0  78.0  82.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%