Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240318 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  38.7  39.1  34.0  28.3  34.0  20.7  24.2  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  17.0  17.4  17.8  18.6  19.4  20.2  21.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  28.0  28.0  19.0  22.0  39.0  30.0  42.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  67.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.78

 SH192024 240318 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  38.7  39.1  34.0  28.3  34.0  20.7  24.2  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  67.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%