Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240318 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.9  38.8  34.6  30.3  29.6  26.5  21.3  22.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.7  36.4  35.1  33.8  31.2  28.5  25.9  23.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  35.0  18.0  -5.0  15.0  17.0  32.0   6.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  69.0  74.0  67.0  73.0  68.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 SH192024 240318 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.9  38.8  34.6  30.3  29.6  26.5  21.3  22.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  69.0  74.0  67.0  73.0  68.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%