Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240319 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  36.6  31.4  30.6  33.9  23.4  25.2  22.1  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  17.0   2.0   4.0  28.0   0.0  14.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  67.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 SH192024 240319 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  36.6  31.4  30.6  33.9  23.4  25.2  22.1  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  67.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%