Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240326 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30     50.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  19.7  17.5  19.1  17.8  27.6  27.6  27.6  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  29.0   1.0  41.0  28.0  53.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   170.0 161.0 145.0 134.0 125.0  62.0  62.0  62.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.3%       25.4%       28.9%
 25kt / 24h       77.8%       82.1%       80.0%
 30kt / 24h       52.0%       77.1%       64.5%
 35kt / 24h       41.5%       77.1%       59.3%
 40kt / 24h       41.5%       74.6%       58.0%
 45kt / 36h       54.3%       82.6%       68.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       70.2%       35.1%
 55kt / 48h       46.3%       61.7%       54.0%
 70kt / 48h       22.3%       52.9%       37.6%
 65kt / 72h       18.8%       42.1%       30.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 SH202024 240326 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30     50.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  19.7  17.5  19.1  17.8  27.6  27.6  27.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%