Rapid Intensification Guidance SH202024 240326 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.50 50.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 45.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 24.0 21.8 23.6 27.5 26.3 18.5 18.0 N N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 34.0 31.0 29.0 14.0 38.0 47.0 48.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 181.0 172.0 157.0 154.0 138.0 152.0 107.0 84.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 77.0 79.0 76.0 76.0 70.0 68.0 N N F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -8.0 -6.0 -7.0 -5.0 -7.0 0.0 -2.0 F F F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 42.5% 27.3% 34.9% 25kt / 24h 80.6% 79.8% 80.2% 30kt / 24h 59.2% 73.2% 66.2% 35kt / 24h 45.5% 73.2% 59.4% 40kt / 24h 44.9% 71.6% 58.3% 45kt / 36h 49.5% 71.1% 60.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 51.0% 25.5% 55kt / 48h 35.0% 49.2% 42.1% 70kt / 48h 18.0% 37.5% 27.8% 65kt / 72h 39.1% 48.2% 43.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.44 SH202024 240326 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.50 50.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 24.0 21.8 23.6 27.5 26.3 18.5 18.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 77.0 79.0 76.0 76.0 70.0 68.0 N N U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -8.0 -6.0 -7.0 -5.0 -7.0 0.0 -2.0 U U U U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%