Rapid Intensification Guidance SH202024 240326 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.70 50.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 22.8 22.9 19.5 31.5 23.7 32.3 30.1 N N N N U N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 32.0 32.0 31.0 27.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 U U U U U N N N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 157.0 137.0 171.0 169.0 161.0 106.0 78.0 69.0 VF VF VF VF VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 74.0 78.0 77.0 73.0 72.0 69.0 68.0 N N F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -7.0 -7.0 -8.0 -9.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.9% 20.2% 32.6% 25kt / 24h 73.2% 68.8% 71.0% 30kt / 24h 58.9% 60.0% 59.5% 35kt / 24h 58.9% 60.0% 59.5% 40kt / 24h 58.9% 60.0% 59.5% 45kt / 36h 48.5% 45.1% 46.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 22.0% 11.0% 55kt / 48h 32.2% 34.4% 33.3% 70kt / 48h 16.2% 17.0% 16.6% 65kt / 72h 26.2% 18.0% 22.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.30 SH202024 240326 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.70 50.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 22.8 22.9 19.5 31.5 23.7 32.3 30.1 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 74.0 78.0 77.0 73.0 72.0 69.0 68.0 N N U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -7.0 -7.0 -8.0 -9.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%