Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240327 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.00     49.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  20.0  24.6  32.6  27.9  33.5  33.4  34.7  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  39.0  56.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   181.0 152.0 150.0 163.0 100.0  80.0  47.0  20.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       49.5%       23.9%       36.7%
 25kt / 24h       70.3%       61.3%       65.8%
 30kt / 24h       60.3%       55.3%       57.8%
 35kt / 24h       60.3%       55.3%       57.8%
 40kt / 24h       60.3%       53.4%       56.9%
 45kt / 36h       47.5%       28.7%       38.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.6%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       16.5%       16.3%       16.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%        4.9%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.3%        4.8%        6.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 SH202024 240327 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.00     49.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  20.0  24.6  32.6  27.9  33.5  33.4  34.7  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%