Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240327 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  27.3  32.5  24.9  27.7  23.5  29.9  28.8  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  30.0  28.0  38.0  38.0  49.0  60.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0 148.0 160.0 162.0 128.0  63.0  -4.0  69.0  F VF VF VF  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        2.6%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h       17.8%        1.3%        9.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 SH202024 240327 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  27.3  32.5  24.9  27.7  23.5  29.9  28.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%