Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240327 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60     49.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  27.6  22.5  24.4  22.9  30.5  34.8  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  28.0  38.0  38.0  44.0  61.0  38.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 107.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   133.0 137.0 133.0 104.0  91.0  68.0  29.0  77.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        2.8%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.3%        1.0%        6.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 SH202024 240327 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60     49.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  27.6  22.5  24.4  22.9  30.5  34.8  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%