Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240328 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90     48.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  24.8  20.1  16.7  21.9  28.5  32.2  44.7  N  N  N  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  28.0  38.0  38.0  42.0  49.0  61.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   170.0 143.0 125.0 124.0  74.0  26.0  85.0  98.0 VF VF  F  F  N  U  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       11.6%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.6%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        7.5%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%        8.4%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h       28.7%        6.0%       17.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 SH202024 240328 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90     48.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  24.8  20.1  16.7  21.9  28.5  32.2  44.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%