Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240328 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  20.4  26.7  29.6  30.3  30.7  39.9  46.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  38.0  40.0  47.0  64.0  41.0  32.0  28.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 124.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0  97.0 102.0  72.0  41.0  48.0  70.0  28.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  62.0  66.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -7.0  -3.0  -5.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.3%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        2.8%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.0%        2.0%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 SH202024 240328 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  20.4  26.7  29.6  30.3  30.7  39.9  46.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  62.0  66.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -7.0  -3.0  -5.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%