Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240328 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10     47.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  22.6  24.8  21.9  25.9  31.3  46.8  51.9  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  52.0  35.0  12.0  37.0  68.0  58.0  39.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 100.0  57.0  60.0  28.0  69.0  20.0  10.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  59.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        9.1%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        8.5%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        5.8%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        2.3%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h       10.1%        4.2%        7.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 SH202024 240328 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10     47.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  22.6  24.8  21.9  25.9  31.3  46.8  51.9  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  59.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%