Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240328 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     47.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  35.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.6%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        7.4%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        4.6%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%        8.2%        7.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 SH202024 240328 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     47.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%