Rapid Intensification Guidance SH202024 240329 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.30 47.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 20.9 25.6 27.4 33.5 49.2 55.1 70.6 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 35.0 3.0 31.0 75.0 62.0 45.0 44.0 N U U U N N N N Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 142.0 144.3 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 94.0 82.0 21.0 13.0 52.0 41.0 33.0 -1.0 F N U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 66.0 67.0 63.0 61.0 61.0 52.0 47.0 N N N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -6.0 -5.0 -5.0 -6.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 N F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 7.5% 4.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 10.1% 5.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.2% 1.1% 55kt / 48h 2.6% 3.5% 3.0% 70kt / 48h 1.0% 1.8% 1.4% 65kt / 72h 4.2% 2.2% 3.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.16 SH202024 240329 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.30 47.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 20.9 25.6 27.4 33.5 49.2 55.1 70.6 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 66.0 67.0 63.0 61.0 61.0 52.0 47.0 N N N N N N F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -6.0 -5.0 -5.0 -6.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 N U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%