Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240329 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30     48.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  25.0  28.8  29.4  42.2  50.9  66.1  61.4  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  35.0  45.0  59.0  63.0  59.0  64.0  58.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  32.0  70.0 100.0  37.0  -9.0   6.0  29.0  U  N  N  F  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  59.0  53.0  56.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.1%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        7.8%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        1.5%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 SH202024 240329 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30     48.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  25.0  28.8  29.4  42.2  50.9  66.1  61.4  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  59.0  53.0  56.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%