Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240329 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  24.1  27.9  32.8  43.6  50.6  57.9  61.1  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  38.0  44.0  53.0  59.0  56.0  46.0  31.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  75.0  83.0  66.0  25.0 -12.0   6.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  64.0  59.0  50.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        7.6%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        7.5%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.5%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 SH202024 240329 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  24.1  27.9  32.8  43.6  50.6  57.9  61.1  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  64.0  59.0  50.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%