Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212024 240406 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.90    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  17.6  17.3  20.8  33.6  36.8  43.3  41.0  N  F  F  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  35.0  36.0  39.0  45.0  47.0  50.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  51.0  42.0  43.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.4%       17.1%       15.8%
 25kt / 24h       44.4%       62.4%       53.4%
 30kt / 24h       26.9%       52.1%       39.5%
 35kt / 24h       20.8%       52.1%       36.4%
 40kt / 24h       14.2%       51.0%       32.6%
 45kt / 36h       24.1%       46.1%       35.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.4%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h       12.9%       20.9%       16.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%       10.4%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.0%        9.1%        8.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.82

 SH212024 240406 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.90    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  17.6  17.3  20.8  33.6  36.8  43.3  41.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%