Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212024 240411 00UTC Storm Located at : -21.70 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 95.7 101.1 108.5 106.0 106.7 101.6 94.6 94.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 18.0 21.0 19.0 18.0 20.0 21.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 -12.0 -24.0 -36.0 -34.0 -18.0 -9.0 -9.0 U U VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 36.0 33.0 31.0 28.0 27.0 23.0 23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -5.0 -11.0 -8.0 0.0 -7.0 7.0 7.0 VF F F F N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.80 SH212024 240411 00UTC Storm Located at : -21.70 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 95.7 101.1 108.5 106.0 106.7 101.6 94.6 94.6 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 36.0 33.0 31.0 28.0 27.0 23.0 23.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -5.0 -11.0 -8.0 0.0 -7.0 7.0 7.0 VU U U U N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.7% 73.4% 86.5%