Rapid Intensification Guidance SH222024 240411 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.20 154.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.2 29.9 33.5 39.9 37.6 33.2 33.2 33.2 N N U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 58.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 61.0 62.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 14.0 13.0 -14.0 -40.0 -26.0 -26.0 -26.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 49.0 46.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -6.0 -6.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 N N N F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.3% 4.2% 5.3% 25kt / 24h 6.5% 15.3% 10.9% 30kt / 24h 5.3% 6.3% 5.8% 35kt / 24h 4.2% 6.2% 5.2% 40kt / 24h 4.2% 6.2% 5.2% 45kt / 36h 2.9% 9.2% 6.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.5% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 3.1% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 2.5% 1.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.42 SH222024 240411 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.20 154.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.2 29.9 33.5 39.9 37.6 33.2 33.2 33.2 N N F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 49.0 46.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -6.0 -6.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 N N N U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%