Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222024 240411 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    155.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  36.4  37.1  37.4  34.1  24.9  22.7  18.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  52.0  54.0  56.0  62.0  66.0  77.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  12.0   6.0  -3.0 -16.0 -14.0 -13.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  58.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0  -8.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%        5.3%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.7%       19.4%       15.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%        9.2%        9.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%        9.2%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%        9.2%        8.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       13.0%        8.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.1%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        4.8%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%        8.5%        7.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 SH222024 240411 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    155.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  36.4  37.1  37.4  34.1  24.9  22.7  18.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  58.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0  -8.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%