Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222024 240411 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    156.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  38.3  35.4  35.8  34.5  29.2  25.6  13.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  54.0  62.0  61.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  -2.0   1.0  -4.0 -16.0   3.0  -6.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  56.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0 -10.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.2%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%        3.0%        4.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 SH222024 240411 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    156.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  38.3  35.4  35.8  34.5  29.2  25.6  13.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  56.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0 -10.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%