Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240516 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.10     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  31.8  26.1  27.5  24.7  31.3  33.0  31.3  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  38.0  34.0  32.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  29.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  72.0  93.0 111.0 112.0 180.0 131.0  67.0  N  N  F  F  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.7%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%       26.4%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%       12.2%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%       12.0%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       11.4%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%       29.5%       18.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.4%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h       12.2%       16.6%       14.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        9.5%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h       24.3%       18.8%       21.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 SH242024 240516 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.10     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  31.8  26.1  27.5  24.7  31.3  33.0  31.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%