Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240517 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.10     51.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  30.3  31.0  27.7  30.3  33.7  38.3  43.8  N  N  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  34.0  31.0  30.0  31.0  31.0  30.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  61.0  73.0 107.0 132.0  74.0  69.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       10.4%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.7%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        8.4%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        4.8%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        1.6%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.9%        3.2%        6.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 SH242024 240517 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.10     51.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  30.3  31.0  27.7  30.3  33.7  38.3  43.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%