Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240517 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.80     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  32.9  25.1  29.8  33.7  37.5  37.5  37.5  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  30.0  31.0  32.0  34.0  38.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  70.0 108.0 118.0 106.0 109.0 109.0 109.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        6.3%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        4.2%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        2.5%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h       10.9%        2.2%        6.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 SH242024 240517 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.80     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  32.9  25.1  29.8  33.7  37.5  37.5  37.5  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%