Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240517 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.40     50.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  29.4  29.3  30.2  35.6  42.9  44.1  43.1  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  31.0  33.0  37.0  59.0  98.0  86.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  44.0  60.0  66.0  35.0  12.0   2.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        7.8%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.9%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        4.7%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%        1.8%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 SH242024 240517 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.40     50.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  29.4  29.3  30.2  35.6  42.9  44.1  43.1  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%