Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240518 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.90     48.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  34.4  32.6  32.4  51.3  51.1  49.4  40.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  32.0  37.0  45.0  76.0  91.0  71.0  51.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  19.0  12.0  14.0   8.0 -31.0  25.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        8.6%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.6%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.1%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.9%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.7%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.3%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 SH242024 240518 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.90     48.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  34.4  32.6  32.4  51.3  51.1  49.4  40.3  F  F  F  N VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%