Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240518 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.80     47.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  33.2  29.1  38.1  43.7  46.8  41.8  41.8  U  U  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  38.0  45.0  53.0  76.0  87.0  76.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -17.0 -30.0 -31.0 -20.0 -18.0 -16.0 -16.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.3%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       11.5%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        5.4%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        5.1%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        5.0%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        5.7%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 SH242024 240518 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.80     47.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  33.2  29.1  38.1  43.7  46.8  41.8  41.8  F  F  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%