Rapid Intensification Guidance SH242024 240518 18UTC Storm Located at : -7.80 47.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 42.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 28.5 33.9 43.1 42.4 48.1 38.4 42.4 N N U VU VU VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 43.0 48.0 57.0 66.0 83.0 83.0 71.0 58.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -22.0 -47.0 -29.0 -32.0 -30.0 -20.0 -24.0 12.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 54.0 53.0 57.0 56.0 58.0 56.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 15.3% 10.0% 12.7% 25kt / 24h 14.0% 23.1% 18.5% 30kt / 24h 14.0% 13.5% 13.7% 35kt / 24h 14.0% 13.5% 13.7% 40kt / 24h 14.0% 13.5% 13.7% 45kt / 36h 4.0% 11.6% 7.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.8% 1.9% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 2.4% 1.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.5% 0.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.04 SH242024 240518 18UTC Storm Located at : -7.80 47.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 42.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 28.5 33.9 43.1 42.4 48.1 38.4 42.4 N N F VF VF VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 54.0 53.0 57.0 56.0 58.0 56.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%