Rapid Intensification Guidance SH242024 240519 00UTC Storm Located at : -7.40 46.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 42.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.9 33.4 40.5 43.3 42.9 43.5 43.5 43.5 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 47.0 56.0 65.0 72.0 80.0 73.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -56.0 -55.0 -40.0 -29.0 -13.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 51.0 50.0 52.0 55.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 25kt / 24h 2.5% 10.0% 6.2% 30kt / 24h 2.3% 4.8% 3.5% 35kt / 24h 2.1% 4.4% 3.3% 40kt / 24h 2.1% 4.4% 3.3% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 4.7% 2.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 SH242024 240519 00UTC Storm Located at : -7.40 46.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 42.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.9 33.4 40.5 43.3 42.9 43.5 43.5 43.5 N F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 51.0 50.0 52.0 55.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2%