Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240519 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.40     45.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  36.4  37.3  36.3  48.3  47.5  47.5  47.5  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  60.0  68.0  73.0  77.0  71.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -41.0  -2.0 -56.0 -17.0 -26.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0 VU  U VU  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  53.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        5.9%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%       18.8%       12.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       11.4%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%       11.4%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       10.3%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        7.2%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 SH242024 240519 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.40     45.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  36.4  37.3  36.3  48.3  47.5  47.5  47.5  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  53.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  F VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%