Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240519 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.40     45.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  44.1  40.9  43.9  44.6  37.3  45.1  45.1  U VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  66.0  71.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  67.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  -9.0   1.0 -13.0  -7.0  -1.0  30.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  59.0  59.0  65.0  65.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        0.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        0.8%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.8%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 SH242024 240519 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.40     45.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  44.1  40.9  43.9  44.6  37.3  45.1  45.1  F VF VF VF VF  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  59.0  59.0  65.0  65.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        2.1%        1.1%        1.6%