Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240519 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.00     44.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  29.1  35.1  37.2  33.9  46.2  57.3  57.3  U  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  58.0  45.0  52.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0 -34.0 -20.0  11.0  81.0  94.0  85.0  85.0 VU VU VU  U  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        2.7%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%        8.9%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        4.3%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%        4.1%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%        4.1%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        3.3%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 SH242024 240519 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.00     44.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  29.1  35.1  37.2  33.9  46.2  57.3  57.3  N  N  F  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%