Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240520 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.70     44.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     36.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  44.2  43.0  39.7  43.5  46.8  46.8  46.8  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  57.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -17.0   9.0   5.0  91.0  39.0  39.0  39.0 VU  U  U  U  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 SH242024 240520 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.70     44.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     36.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  44.2  43.0  39.7  43.5  46.8  46.8  46.8  F VF VF  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%