Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240520 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.80     43.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.7  32.5  31.4  27.3  36.2  36.2  36.2  36.2  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  59.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0  30.0  49.0  57.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0 VU  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        6.2%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.5%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        2.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 SH242024 240520 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.80     43.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.7  32.5  31.4  27.3  36.2  36.2  36.2  36.2  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%