Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240520 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.90     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  33.7  32.5  39.1  42.4  42.4  42.4  42.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  49.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  29.0  46.0  78.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  61.0  66.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        3.4%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       10.5%       16.6%       13.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%        7.7%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%        7.7%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%        7.6%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%        6.5%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 SH242024 240520 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.90     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  33.7  32.5  39.1  42.4  42.4  42.4  42.4  F  F  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  61.0  66.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%