Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240521 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.20     43.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  31.3  40.6  40.2  46.4  46.4  46.4  46.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  34.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  85.0  89.0  57.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.4%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%        7.6%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        2.9%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%        2.8%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%        2.8%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 SH242024 240521 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.20     43.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  31.3  40.6  40.2  46.4  46.4  46.4  46.4  F  N  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%