Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240521 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -4.70     42.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  41.8  40.2  40.4  42.2  46.2  50.7  43.1  U VU  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  41.0  37.0  32.0  43.0  59.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  88.0  56.0  57.0  16.0   7.0  49.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.8%        2.5%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       11.1%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.2%        4.7%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        9.2%        4.7%        7.0%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%        4.7%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        3.3%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 SH242024 240521 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -4.70     42.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  41.8  40.2  40.4  42.2  46.2  50.7  43.1  F VF  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%