Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240521 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -4.70     42.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.0  40.8  40.8  40.8  40.8  40.8  40.8  40.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  42.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        2.5%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%        8.4%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        3.7%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%        3.7%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%        3.7%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 SH242024 240521 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -4.70     42.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.0  40.8  40.8  40.8  40.8  40.8  40.8  40.8 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%