Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242024 240522 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -3.40     41.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     35.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.5  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  36.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 SH242024 240522 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -3.40     41.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     35.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.5  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        3.4%        2.1%        2.7%