Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252024 240519 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -2.30     75.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.5  57.2  68.6  69.4  69.7  69.7  69.7  69.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  74.0  71.0  69.0  67.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  50.0  32.0  44.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.3%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.90

 SH252024 240519 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -2.30     75.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.5  57.2  68.6  69.4  69.7  69.7  69.7  69.7 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        5.4%        0.6%        3.0%