Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252024 240520 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -2.20     75.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.7  71.0  69.1  67.9  73.3  63.7  80.7  84.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  71.0  87.0  99.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  41.0  42.0  41.0  80.0  70.0  33.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.38

 SH252024 240520 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -2.20     75.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.7  71.0  69.1  67.9  73.3  63.7  80.7  84.5 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.2%        1.3%        5.3%