Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252024 240520 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -2.70     77.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        64.7  64.0  62.4  59.4  47.6  53.9  62.0  67.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  57.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  44.0  45.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  86.0  77.0 104.0  66.0  22.0 -11.0  38.0  N  F  N  F  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 SH252024 240520 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -2.70     77.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        64.7  64.0  62.4  59.4  47.6  53.9  62.0  67.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.2%        1.0%        5.1%