Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252024 240520 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -3.30     78.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        65.1  67.2  66.5  69.6  81.2  89.5  89.5  89.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  67.0  70.0  73.0  81.0  95.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  74.0  98.0  75.0  17.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  N  N  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.68

 SH252024 240520 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -3.30     78.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        65.1  67.2  66.5  69.6  81.2  89.5  89.5  89.5 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.2%        0.5%        4.9%