Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012024 240524 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  14.0  17.0  15.1  18.4  23.6  21.9  25.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  70.0  14.0  83.0  48.0  92.0  93.0  63.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0 124.0 110.0  82.0  81.0   5.0  28.0  53.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  77.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   3.0  12.0  20.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        4.0%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       20.1%       46.7%       33.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       26.8%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       24.8%       13.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       24.3%       12.9%
 45kt / 36h       17.3%       60.1%       38.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.7%       18.4%
 55kt / 48h       43.5%       45.3%       44.4%
 70kt / 48h       23.9%       35.2%       29.5%
 65kt / 72h       57.0%       55.8%       56.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.20

 WP012024 240524 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  14.0  17.0  15.1  18.4  23.6  21.9  25.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  77.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   3.0  12.0  20.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%